Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Effects of Global warming on Sea Otter Essay

The effects of global warming are with us, different parts of the world are experiencing catastrophic phenomenon which are directly attributed to the rise in global temperatures. Global warming basically refers to the increase in temperatures on the earth surface over a period of time. It has been established that the global temperatures has risen by almost two degrees centigrade for the last one century. This condition has been attributed to the increase in the green house gas concentrations in the atmosphere. This is directly as a result of human activity which has resulted in the increased emission of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Human activities are largely to blame for the condition that is threatening to change the weather and climatic patterns. This condition if it goes unchecked for some years to come the whole world populations may be wiped out. The effects of this phenomenon are so serious that the lives of all the creatures on earth are at great risk. Global warming has been responsible for the climate and weather changes being experienced in different parts of the world. Temperatures have risen to high levels which have never been witnessed before. Ice is melting leading to rise of sea levels this is causing and will continue to cause displacement to people and animals that live near the sea shores. Cities which have for long time enjoyed closeness to the sea are being submerged. It has been pointed out that in some years to come entire cities along the coastlines may be submerged. This will lead to serious loss of lives, both for people and animals. Properties worth billions will be destroyed as the nature takes its course perhaps as a reaction from the selfish lifestyles of the human beings. The changing patterns of climatic conditions are causing deep problems as some animals species are finding it hard to survive in areas where they have lived for ages . Animals which have largely depended on these conditions for survival have their populations being reduced in a great margin. In all parts of the world extreme weather conditions are being experienced. In some cases temperatures are rising to levels which have never been recorded before whereas some regions in Europe are experiencing extremely cold seasons which are forcing some of the sea animals to migrate to other areas in search for food and better places to live. The mass migration of animal species is impacting negatively on the lives of the humans and other animals. As they move they may lead to more destruction of the environment, this means that the problem that has brought us to this end will be with us for a long time. The changing weather patterns will lead to so many changes in the world; this will include the eating habits of the animals. This has already happened in some parts of the world as some animals are turning to non traditional sources of their food as a mechanism to survive the harsh conditions which are directly related to the global warming. The size of the Artic region is expected to decrease with the possibility of the ocean being free of the summer ice in a period of less than fifty years. The response of the Artic region to this climatic catastrophe has been worrying the scientist as it poses even more serious dangers to the world than what we are experiencing at the moment. There is a possibility of more green house gases being released in to the atmosphere as a result of thawing process of methane and other harmful elements. Releasing of these gases into the air will hasten the global warming leading to more serious problems. The effects of global warming are far reaching; they are affecting every aspect of our lives. Sea otter have not been spared either by this phenomenon which is threatening to wipe out the entire population if these marine mammals in Europe. According to Kruuk Hans the population of the sea otters in Europe has been on a sharp decline due to various reasons where one of the most cited has been global warming exposing these creatures to predators and conditions which are no favorable. (Kruuk H 2006 229) Extreme low temperatures in some parts of Europe have lead to mass migration of sea otters to areas where they are being an easy prone to the predators. As they move around searching for food they are exposing themselves to the wolves’ whales and humans who are hunting them for economic use. Although this has been happening even before, the changing climatic conditions as a result of global warming has greatly contributed to the change in patterns in the lives of these marine creatures which have been known to inhibit cold sea regions. (Pine, S 1993 78) Global warming has led to the increase in diseases some of which were not common in some parts of Europe. These diseases are spreading far and wide in this region causing panic among the populations. This is threatening the lives of people and animals too. Some diseases which were only common in tropical and temperate areas have now found their way into the coldest regions of Europe. Some diseases causing organism have found conducive conditions in areas which in less than half a century could have been described as diseases free zones. Ocean warming and the fall of the Artic ocean ice levels which is a direct effect of globalization have been pointed out as the main cause of the spread of a virus which is causing the death of sea otters. Phocine distemper virus has been identified as the cause of many deaths among these marine creatures in some parts of Europe and America. Scientists have pointed out that sea otters are dying as a result of a syndrome which they were referring to as step syndrome. This is a clear indication of how global warming will affect the lives of all creatures in the earth. It will not spare the innocent animals which largely depend on cool atmosphere for their survival. Global warming if not checked threatens to wipe out entire population of some species. Sea otters population has been on sharp decline due to the threats by human who consider it valuable economically. (Silverstone, V and Silverstone, A 1995) Predators such as whales are now prowling on this tiny sea creature as their traditional sources of food are dwindling due to climatic changes. Global warming is a real threat; lives of many animals are at risk due to this phenomenon. The major forests in the world are shrinking, deserts are expanding and agricultural yields are at the lowest points ever. Immediate actions need to be taken to ensure that this condition is reversed; such efforts will guarantee the lives of animals which are facing extinction and at the same time guarantee human beings a bright future. This can only be done if the governments in different parts of the world especially in Europe and America take action on carbon emission in their countries. Efforts to reduce human activities which lead to emission of green house gases will save the world and its inhabitants. This will go along way in checking the amount of carbon being released in to the atmosphere ultimately checking global warming. Such efforts will ensure that the lives of all animals including the sea otters are safeguarded. Work Cited Pine, S The World of Sea Otter, Vancouver, Greystone Publishers (1993) Silverstone, V and Silverstone, A Sea Otter, Brokefield, Millbrook Press (1995) Kruuk, H Sea Otter, Oxford University Press (2006)

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Human Resources and Organizational Effectiveness Essay

Introduction – The organization I am currently employed with is the United States Army, more specifically the Army Substance Abuse Program, rehabilitation treatment clinic at Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Tacoma Washington. The rehabilitation treatment clinic has 35 employees; 26 chemical dependency counselors, four of which are supervisors and nine administrative assistants. Key Strategy Aspect – With the recent realignment of the department from one agency to another, training and coaching is a key strategic aspect that needs to be addressed. Many of the standards and expectations of the new agency are very different than what was the norm with the previous agency the clinic was aligned with. The realignment to the new agency has brought the spotlight to the department and increased pressure to improve how the department operates. The new agency has required the department to prove efficiency and effectiveness, which has required more record keeping and statistic reporting. Proper record keeping of patient care has emerged as cumbersome and actually taking away from the quality of care provided to the patients. HR Program – Training and coaching would support and further the department’s strategy to improve effectiveness and efficiency. Through providing training and coaching on how to better use current technologies such as Microsoft office products and dictating tools to better produce patient documentation and statistical data efficiency and quality will improve. Care providers will spend less time working on documentation and will have the time needed to focus on the patient care. Strategic Metric – A strategic metric that could be used to assess the effectiveness of the training and coaching program is to measure how well the employees are performing their specific reports would be to measure the time it takes to produce the reports before and after the training. To show reduced time spent producing the patient care reports and statistical data would prove training and coaching is effective. Organization’s Strategy – How this relates to the organization’s strategy is that it directly affects the overall mission, patient care. By reducing time spent on the administrative aspect and improving the quality of the record keeping. Current statistics simply tracks how many case reports are completed. How it might differ from a benchmarking metric is that measuring the time it takes to complete the required documentation is quantifiable compared to a benchmark metric. The measure is ensuring that cases are actually documented and the time spent completing the requirement is reduced and measured.

Monday, July 29, 2019

A Synopis of The Tell-Tale Heart

Edgar Allan Poe's short story â€Å"The Tell-Tale Heart† takes place in the protagonist's house. It is told through a first-person narration given by the protagonist.It is unclear where the protagonist is or who the person being spoken to at the beginning of the story is. The protagonist's sex isn't specified but for ease of discussion â€Å"he† will be used to refer to the same.There were only two occupants of the house wherein the story unfolds: the protagonist and an old man. The relationship between them is not clearly established but it is clear that the protagonist is irked by the old man.The latter's most distinctive characteristic is his blue vulture-like eye.   There are few other characters introduced in the story: a neighbor who calls the police complaining of noises from within the house and policemen who investigate the said complaint.The story is moved by the protagonist's obsessive desire to murder the old man because of his frustration with the old man 's eye. He attempts to commit the deed several times but is disappointed. On the eighth attempt he enters the old man's room again and this time the   latter awakens and sits up. The light from the protagonist's lamp hits the blue eye.He imagines that he hears the old man's heart beating louder and smothers the old man to death. He chops the body to pieces and buries the pieces under the floorboards to hide his crime.However, when the policemen come to investigate the scream heard by the neighbor he imagines that he still hears the beating heart from underneath the floorboards.Fearing that the policemen hear the beating as well, he confesses to his crime and begs them to unfasten the boards and dig up the body.Works CitedPoe, Edgar Allan. The Complete Illustrated Stories and Poems. UK: Bounty Books, 1994.

How are proffessional and managerial careers gendered and racialist Essay

How are proffessional and managerial careers gendered and racialist - Essay Example From this research it is clear that globalization and advancements in technology have led to the career advancement of women and fading of the cultural and feminist beliefs which have made women to increasingly participate in managerial and professional roles which were traditionally male dominated. Every individual despite his race is guaranteed by law a chance to develop in his career without any discrimination. This has however not always been the case since people from minority groups still face discrimination. Evidence from surveys conducted by Equality campaigner groups have shown that job applicants from minority races stood a higher of not being shortlisted for job interviews compared with white counterparts with similar qualifications. People from minority groups have been found to shy away from some professions due to perceived racial prejudice. Researchers have also shown that the racial background of an individual may determine their chances of getting into managerial job s. The government has however worked towards equality at job place by introducing stringent laws to guarantee equal opportunities for all. In professional careers, the role of gender is demonstrated by the perception of the society on the role of women in work activities. Some working environments such as construction and engineering work are considered to be hostile for women. According to Arditi and Balci, the perceptions and beliefs on gender and work continue to persist despite the fact that women have demonstrated the ability of performing duties which were considered to be meant for men.... Watts (2009, p. 23) illustrates that high profile organizations have been reported to show bias against women in the promotion into managerial positions. For example civil lawsuits have been staged by women against large organizations and companies such as Wal-Mart for allegation of gender bias in the appointment, promotion and compensation of female employees as compared to the male counterparts. Fisher, Gushue and Cerrone (2011, p. 447) assert that women in the UK’s construction industry who work as engineers face challenges in balancing the professional and domestic life because of the obligations they are expected to meet at home and the pressure at work. The cultural context and belief of the society on the participation of women in construction work show that men are considered to be most suited for the construction work. According to Watts (2009, p. 37), women face prejudice when working in a male dominated career because some roles and work activities are considered to be meant for men. The number of women within the construction industry is increasing despite the challenges and the prejudice associated with this career. The ability of women to survive in the male dominated career shows that they are qualified to be part of the team and it is contributing to the reduction of the discrimination in hiring female engineers. Therefore the professional identity of women in some managerial and professional careers is facing conflicts and challenges but they are decreasing with the growing civilization within world societies. It is notable that gender discrimination in managerial and professional careers is not always apparently

Sunday, July 28, 2019

Report Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 3

Report - Coursework Example In addition, being self-aware makes me more employable in the sense that depending on my strengths and weaknesses, I can clearly define the most suitable working environment and conditions to which I will be of maximum productivity. For instance, the awareness of strong working values makes me eligible to any working environment be it team working or solo working. I have learnt that my strengths provide a good foundation for my pursuit of the sale and marketing career. Though, despite the advantage provided by my self-awareness, I also need to research on the sales and marketing job market and get the set specific targets to achieving the career objective. In addition, I have learnt that I also need to learn more about other factors that affect the employment process; factors like CV writing, job hunting and several more and that I need to improve my writing communication. Finally, I have learnt is that I need to acquire career facts in order to be employable. I need to know the entry requirements, key employers, recruitment schedules, useful social media websites as well as sources of work experience since all these factors play an important role in employment. The evidence previously provided shows the absence of the STAR program utility. One way that I could provide better evidence is by giving the exact details of what I actually did while working at the food processing company. My computer literacy enabled me to perform tasks using Word, Excel, and PowerPoint. On top of these Microsoft utilities, I also used custom made software for the company to perform a special task like calculating the expiry date of a given type of process food. Subsequently, I could have provided more details in describing my positive attitude towards work. For example, despite joining the food company at a young age (18 years of age), I was optimistic that I could do whatever my elder colleagues were capable of doing. This positive attitude

Saturday, July 27, 2019

Foreign Policy Issues Faced by UK Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Foreign Policy Issues Faced by UK - Essay Example The three issues of international concern to the U.K. are discussed in greater depth below. Discussion The United Kingdom has been in the forefront of international news lately and these three foreign policy issues are the fight against terrorism, the economic crisis in Europe and the on-going war in Libya of which Great Britain and France took the lead roles for all NATO members in cooperation with the United States of America. The three international issues are important to the United Kingdom because it is leading member of the European Union as well as a major player in the international arena of politics, economy and the oil industry. On the whole, an evaluation of the newspaper's approach to presenting the news will show it tries to present a balanced view of the news, without any sensationalism, slant or any personal opinion either of the reporter or the newspaper's news editors. This is as it should be as the task of any newspaper is to inform its readers and any views on the news should always be properly relegated to the opinion-editorial page (op-ed section). If ever, the personal views of the reporter are largely muted or very subtle an ordinary reader would hardly notice it. The fight against Islamist terrorism is of great interest to the United Kingdom. It is a primary concern to the country as it itself had once been a victim of these terrorists attacks. It was not too long ago when four suicide bombers detonated themselves in a well-coordinated attack by riding on London's trains and set off the bombs back in July 07, 2005 that targeted civilian train passengers. The four bombers declared themselves as jihadists and had links to the terror network of Al Qaeda. The recent successes of the American's anti-terrorism efforts should be of good cheer to the English people as well because it implies a safer environment for every British citizen. The killing of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan back in May this year is a great victory against international ter rorism. The recent news about the assassination of Mr. Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen should be reason enough for a celebration (Hider 1) as this guy in a way had assumed the ideological leadership of Al Qaeda after Osama bin Laden was killed. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States which is the lead agency tasked to fight terrorism overseas had targeted him despite Mr. Awlaki being an American citizen. He is a native American of sorts, having been born in New Mexico but he took up jihad (Dozier and Apuzzo 1) and was responsible for several failed bombing attempts using airplanes also. The second news item of international significance for the United Kingdom is the on-going financial and economic crisis in Europe caused by the risk of default by Greece. The country is one of the strongest economies in Europe, besides Germany and France, It is only expected that it will also play a leading role in resolving this latest debt crisis by contributing to a bailout fund and st amping a seal of approval for any loans to be given out to Greece. But is it also in a quandary of sorts, as the country itself has not yet fully recovered from an earlier financial crisis brought about by the bursting of the American housing sub-mortgage bubble in 2007 and is also suffering from a large budget deficit that has necessitated big cutbacks. Great Britain had seemed headed for a mild economic recovery just six months ago but the situation today has completely deteriorated due

Friday, July 26, 2019

Workplace Violence Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Workplace Violence - Research Paper Example The growing concern of workplace violence triggered the formation of many labor unions and prevention programs in the country during the 1990s.   Among the prevention programs includes OSHA. Even though labor unions protect employees from workplace violence, many of them are still victims. This is because of lack of effective prevention programs and regulations. For instance, in 1990, OSHA helped in tracking victims of workplace violence. However, it failed to record the number of workplace violence caused by co-workers (Farb & Gordon, 2005). Workplace violence is not only caused by employers but is also caused by co-workers. In the year 1993, NSWI discovered that most of the workplace violence that occurred during that year was caused by economic and psychological problems. Cases of mass killing in workplaces have increased by about 50 percent since 1990. This makes homicide to be the leading cause of workplace psychological and physical injuries in workplaces.   Cases of verbal abuse in the workplaces increased by about 42 between 2005 and 2009. Psychological problems workplaces soon and schizophrenia make people to hurt their co-workers in organizations.   Workplace violence such as verbal abuse and bullying, which do not have negative effects on physical health of employees, has negative effects on their psychological health.   An example of a psychological effect of workplace abuse includes panic attack. 52 percent of employees experience panic attacks in work places.  Ã‚  

Thursday, July 25, 2019

Internal and External Factor Analyses of the Vermont Teddy Bear Co., Essay

Internal and External Factor Analyses of the Vermont Teddy Bear Co., Inc - Essay Example The first section will present a brief profile of the company. The next section will then tackle the opportunities and threats faced by the company which will lay the foundation for the external factor analysis. Lastly, the paper will look at the internal functioning of Vermont Teddy Bear Co, Inc., through its strengths and weaknesses. The paper will also present summaries of the internal and external factor analyses. Vermont Teddy Bear Co, Inc. began in the streets of Burlington, Vermont in 1981. Its founder, John Sortino began this business by "selling hand sewn teddy bears out of a pushcart." His venture marked the foundation of a business which is basically involved in the conceptualization, manufacture, and marketing of teddy bears. The company is known for its products which are manufactured by Americans using local inputs. Vermont Teddy Bear Co., Inc., however, has begun utilizing imported materials to lower the costs of production and boost profitability. The major business line of the company is the marketing of bears through a program called Bear-Grams which delivers the company's products to customers who can order online or through phone. Bear-Gram was originally advertised through radio stations and orders were taken for special occasions like birthdays, Valentine's Day, and others. The company has latter diversified in the retail of its products. Expansion also meant opening up retail outlets in lucrative areas in the United States. This expansion aimed to promote Vermont Teddy Bear as a national brand. Vermont Teddy Bear Co., Inc.'s performance peaked during 1994 but slipped off due to managerial problems and constraints (The Vermont Teddy Bear Co., Inc 1994). External Factor Analysis External factor analysis is lifted from the opportunities and threats faced by Vermont Teddy Bear Co., Inc. Opportunities include market developments, competitors' vulnerabilities, lifestyle or industry trends, technology development and innovation and a lot more which poses an opportunity which can enable the company to grab a larger portion in the market, maximize shareholders' value, or boost profitability. On the other hand, threats can be political events, drop in market demand, and other obstacles faced by a business entity. Table 1 is a summary of the external factor analysis conducted on Vermont Teddy Bears Co., Inc. Opportunities abound for Vermont Teddy Bear Co., Inc. The boom in the collectible market posts a bright prospect for the company this means a larger customer base which can be serviced by Vermont. The collectible industry is estimated to be a $9.2 billion industry with the plush collectibles segment cornering a $441 million share (Calta, 1995). In the past five years, there has been a growing preference for the upscale bear, the limited editions, and the artist-designed bears (Leccese, 1998). Companies in the teddy bear industry can take advantage of this trend by expanding their product lines in response to this growth. Vermont Teddy Bear Co., Inc. as one of the most prominent players in the teddy bear industry is in a very advantageous position to grab this opportunity. Manufacture of bears to suit the changing needs of customers can be pursued. Market diversification strategies can also be undertaken by the company both in the United Sta

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Alcohol Advertisement Report Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 1

Alcohol Advertisement Report - Essay Example Now the ads are found everywhere in the newspaper, magazine, TV shows even in the textbooks. Ads can be seen at every nook and corner, as they are being so common that the people are also being familiar with the message they convey. Alcohol companies do put warning like â€Å"Drink Responsibly† on their advertisement but no one bothers to consider that, because the alcohol advertisement make drinking so appealing to the youth, that they start believing it to become one of those â€Å"cool kids† in town. The above advertisement is of signature, product of MC Dowell Nepal Limited and it is taken from January 15 2007 issue of â€Å"The Boss†, a business magazine. As we can see that their main target in this advertisement is youth and adolescent. The companies advertising alcohol products mainly show it as a â€Å"Lifestyle Theme†; which prompts the viewer to take the action as the advertiser wants. It is observable in the above advertisement, that the people portrayed belong to a wealthy background, and are going somewhere, away from their workplace or home town.

Globalization and Employment Relations Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Globalization and Employment Relations - Essay Example A peek into their social and political structure from the beginning of the twentieth century to today's fast paced world and also a study of the hypothesis of convergence will help us in making definite conclusions about the subject. Katz evaluates three hypotheses that have been suggested to explain the trend towards decentralized bargaining: first, shifts in bargaining power from unions to employers; second, the emergence of new forms of work organization, which put a premium on flexibility and employee participation; and third, the decentralization of corporate structures and diversification of worker preferences. Katz concludes that the second hypothesis is the most convincing, on the grounds that labour and management appear to have gained distinct advantages from work restructuring that accomplished decentralization. However, shifts in bargaining power, as well as the diversification of corporate and worker interests, are important contributing factors to the decentralization process. Sweden became an industrial society later when compared to most other countries in Europe. At the start of the 20th century, Sweden was a poor agrarian society with high emigration rate. It is now a relatively wealthy, welfare-oriented, service society. Sweden has 25% of its civilian workforce employed in industry, only 2.4% are still in agriculture, while 73% are in services, partly as a result of the strong growth of local and regional government since the 1960s. Swedish employment relations have long fascinated foreign observers. With a total population of 9 million and with 4.4 million in labour force, Sweden is the smallest of the countries in Europe. However, 76% of its women are in the labour force which is the highest female participation rate of any OECD country. Employment relations in Sweden have passed through three broad stages since the nineteenth century. The beginning of the union movement was the first stage, which lasted from the 1890s to 1930s.Unions were established during this period and there were disputes between the capitalists and the laborers. The government was either passive or supported the capitalists. The second stage was approximately from mid-1930s to the early 1970s. The 'Swedish model' was established during this period, with a low level of industrial conflict, a 'solidaristic' wage policy, an active labour market policy and labour-management cooperation. An economic policy reliant on economic growth subsumed many of the pay-related problems for the unions and paved way for a pattern of employment relations with few industrial disputes. Emergence of a third stage can be traced to the 1970s. More radical union ambitions, the election of a non-socialist government in 1976 severe economic problems, and a strategy based on free enterprise and a market economy, on the employer side, represented significant changes. The 1980 dispute symbolized these developments. Wage earner funds were introduced after a bitter conflict, but were not seen as a complete victory by the unions. The wage earner fund system became a political burden for the Social Democratic Party and did not result in a basic change in Sweden's economic system. The employers tried to reverse the trend as much as

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

A Message without Words Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2750 words

A Message without Words - Essay Example There are various channels that are used to ensure that public relationships occur and they include newsletters, public appearances, press releases and other mediums like the websites that can reach the globe. Benetton images have been used to deliver various messages to different audiences in the world on themes such as love, fight against discrimination and embracing interracial relationships. This paper will focus on the Benetton image highlighted above and the features that make the image an effective marketing and advertisement tool. It will also focus on the goals of the advert, the integrated marketing communication and the technologies used to ensure the success of the advertising program. The message that would fit the image is â€Å"fighting discrimination and racial segregation in prisons and the entire globe†. This message is described by the picture where we find two hands which are handcuffed together and they are of different races. There is a black hand and a white hand which are handcuffed and they reveal a message that indicates that they are in prison but they have decided to fight against discrimination together. The issue of racial discrimination has been a long and upstanding issue that have affected both the whites and the black Americans and the issue has also been prevalent in prisons where the two groups of people have been fighting against each other. The picture demonstrates that if people would embrace the message in the picture there would be peace, tolerance and love among the whites and black people (Caywood, 2012). The goal of the campaign is to transform the cultural beliefs, stereotypes, perceptions and behaviors that have been influenced by the racial prejudice. The target audiences of the picture are the African-Americans and the white Americans who have experienced racial discrimination and target for hate due to their skin color and their

Monday, July 22, 2019

Teenagers sometimes complain Essay Example for Free

Teenagers sometimes complain Essay Teenagers first come into this world as a bundle of joy, but some object. As children grow and become teenagers, the problems start. Problems such as relationships, school and even monetary are rampant. So what do children do when they run into trouble? They go to their parents; so do teenagers. Teenagers in Singapore go through lots of education. From young in primary school till university for many. Education can therefore be said to be very formal and very fast paced and competitive. Teachers and parents already at this stage have their students or childrens lives planned out, but teenagers may think differently. Our elders think that teenagers need help and are always wrong. Certainly there are numerous occasions when we simply cannot do without our parents. But for the many others, we need to take a stand and speak out for whats right. Let me give you this example. There is a boy. He goes to school. Then he goes to secondary school. He is now a teenager. The O level examination is approaching, and all he does is try to study. That is good. Then the adult steps in. A responsible one would say this: How are you doing? Do you need help? Just ask me. Dont be shy. Then on the other hand an adult with fish mongering experience would say this: Aiyah! Whole day study study. You know last time My parents worked day and night, and I started working when I was your age! Now all you can do is sit here and read your book. So this is the main reason behind teenagers being treated like children. Sometimes its not the teenagers fault but instead it is the adults fault. You have just seen how family backgrounds affect how people view children. Now I shall let you see what happens when it is the teenagers fault. A good teenager would do what he or she is supposed to do to become a good person. Like so: Teacher, can I ask you a question? What topics are coming out for the tests? Then the bad one would say: Aiyah! Tests are always coming, but they never come, study wastes time, study for what? You see the good teenager has a sort of worry for his future, whereas the bad one does not. It is this mere worry that sets us about our lives. Without it, our lives would be as meaningless as the aimless punks. Adults also think about our future. Because we dont. They care incessantly about the smallest things in life, probably because when they were young, they faced the same demands of society. So it is because of this care and concern for responsibility that motivates us to behave like children, so the adults can guide us toward the right path. Now I know, what you qualify determines whether you are a child or an adult.

Sunday, July 21, 2019

An Analysis of the Cinema of Short Films

An Analysis of the Cinema of Short Films INTRODUCTION Film as dream, film as music. No form of art goes beyond ordinary consciousness as film does, straight to our emotions, deep into the twilight room of the soul. Ingmar Bergman Cinema is one of the few mediums which have managed to successfully depict the true reality of society in general and our lives in particular. As like other art forms, it depicts the multiple realties that one is faced with. It explores one of the most discarded yet eternal truths which every individual experiences and that is isolation. Each individual longs for social ties despite belonging to organized societies; it is what each one of us is ultimately reduced to. A Short film is a technical description originally coined in the Indian film industry and used in the North American film industry in the early period of cinema. The description is now used almost interchangeably with short subject. Although the North American definition generally refers to films between 20 and 40 minutes, the definition refers to much shorter films in Europe,Latin America and Australasia. InNew Zealand, for instance, the description can be used to describe any film that has duration longer than one minute and shorter than 15 minutes. The North American definition also tends to focus much more on character whereas the European and Australasian forms tend to depend much more on visual drama and plot twists. In this way, the North American form can be understood to be a derivation of the feature film form, usually acting as a platform for aspirant Hollywood directors. Elsewhere, short films tend to work as showcases for cinematographers and commercial directors. (Short Film) A short film manages to tell the same tale as a full length feature film, but in a shorter duration of time. It is characterized by the directors reflection of the existing social, political and economic conditions. A short film narrative is one which can easily be created by people from all walks of life, it has universal applicability. It enables directors functioning on a small budget to tell their stories to the world. The talent in creating a short film lies in communicating the message of the film to the audience in a very limited period of time. The transitions in a short film are of critical importance. What I find intriguing is how any person imbibes from their existing social conditions and produce work which is effectively communicable to most individuals. Another reason to dwell into this topic of research is that many youngsters and amateurs start by making short films and use it as a path to grow. As Daniel Wiernicki states, Short films are often popular as first steps into the film industry among young filmmakers. This is because they are cheaper and easier to make, and also their length makes shorts more likely to be watched by financial backers and others who want some demonstration of a filmmakers ability. Many things can be achieved by creating a short film so are an ideal opportunity to get recognized and get into the industry. (Wiernicki) Through this dissertation, I aim to explore the world of short films in the context of movies which have won the Cannes Short Film Palme dOr(French:Palme dOr du court mÃÆ' ©trage), which is the highest prize given to a short film at the Cannes Film Festival. These short films are a representation of different cultures, ideologies, people, religion, economic background, and political thoughts and history from across the world that come together on one platform and showcase their art. The cinema is not an art which films life: the cinema is something between art and life. Unlike painting and literature, the cinema both gives to life and takes from it, and I try to render this concept in my films. Literature and painting both exist as art from the very start; the cinema doesnt. Jean- Luc Godard LITERATURE REVIEW Throughout our history, humans have looked for different forms of expressing themselves. These expressions were in the form of poetry, literature, songs, plays, dancing, etc. films are one of the latest forms of expression that has been adopted by the people around the world to portray their views on their surroundings, any event, or moment that captivates them and they want to show it to the world. The beauty of the films nowadays is that you can detract from reality and present something beyond the human imagination at the same time one can present the harsh realities of life that some dont know about. Films as a medium of communications can be used to spread ones message or view across the world. History of Cinema (History of Film) The birth of the films happened in 1878, when Eadweard Muybridge recorded a horse running in fast motion using a series of 24 stereoscopic cameras. With the development of technology came of the Silent era. Till the 1920s movies were silent, though at times they were accompanied by musicians, sound effects, or even commentary at times. 1940s to 60s- War and Post War Cinema The wartime saw immense change in the cinema as more focus was given to propaganda and patriotic films. Films like Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs and Citizen Cane were pieces of this period. The cold war era brought movies filled with paranoia such as Invading Armies of Evil Aliens and anti-communist movies such as the Manchurian Candidate. The onset of television in the post war era also threatened the cinematic industry as a medium of watching films. During this Period, Asian Cinema specifically saw a golden age. Some of the greatest masterpieces of the Asian cinema were produced during this period. These include works like: Yasujiro OzusTokyo Story(1953),Satyajit RaysThe Apu Trilogy(1955-1959) andThe Music Room(1958),Kenji MizoguchisUgetsu(1954) andSansho the Bailiff(1954),Raj KapoorsAwaara(1951),Mikio NarusesFloating Clouds(1955),Guru DuttsPyaasa(1957) andKaagaz Ke Phool(1959), and theAkira Kurosawa films Rashomon (1950), Ikiru(1952),Seven Samurai(1954) andThrone of Blood(1957). 1970s: Post-classical cinemaThis term is used to describe the period following the decline of the studio system during the 1950s and 1960s and the end of the production code. During the 1970s, filmmakers increasingly depicted explicit sexual content and showed gunfight and battle scenes that included graphic images of bloody deaths. The 1980s were filled with movies releasing with sequels like Star Wars, Jaws, and Indiana Jones. The audience also started to watch movies on their VCR at home during this period. 1990s to present: Contemporary Cinema The 1990s saw the development of the independent cinema with commercial success. Special effects also ruled during this period as it was being heavily used by the successful movies of the period like: Terminator 2: Judgment Day(1991) andTitanic(1997). During the 2000s, documentary genre of film making also rose as can be seen with the success of movies such as March of the Penguins, and Fahrenheit 9/11. Increase in the problem of digital distribution due to infringement of copyrights, and piracy also has reached heights during this period. Cinema as a whole during this decade has become more global with foreign-language films gaining popularity in English-speaking markets. Films such as City of Gods (Portugese), Lagaan (Hindi), and the Passion of the Christ (Aramaic). Some have described the prevailing style of the period as post modern because many contemporary films are apolitical, ahistorical, intertextual, and less tied to the conventions of a single genre or culture. The transnational circulation and genre hybridity of contemporary films is exemplified by the increasing global popularity of non- English speaking cinema. (Film Studies, 2009) Major Genres of Films: They are broad enough to accommodate practically any film ever made, although film categories can never be precise. By isolating the various elements in a film and categorizing them in genres, it is possible to easily evaluate a film within its genre and allow for meaningful comparisons and some judgments on greatness. Films were not really subjected to genre analysis by film historians until the 1970s. All films have at least one major genre, although there are a number of films that are considered crossbreeds or hybrids with three or four overlapping genre (orsub-genre) types that identify them. (Dirks) Genres in cinema can broadly be categorized under the following classifications: Setting prisonHistoryFuturisticFantasyWesternWarMood Drama MelodramaTragedyComedy- dramaRomanceAction- adventure Humor/ Comedy SlapstickBlack comedyScrewball comedyAction comedyRomantic comedySuspense HorrorMysteryThrillerTheme or topic CrimeArt FilmWarScience fictionalEspionageWesternSportsFantasyFilm NoirFormat MusicalDocumentaryLive actionAnimationBiographyHISTORY OF SHORT FILMS Short subject a name initially given to Short Films came into existence in the 1910s when the majority of the feature movies were being made into loner run-time editions. The name short subject is an American film industry term, which was assigned to any film within 20 minutes long or running two reels. Short subject films could be comedy, animated, or live action. One of the best known users of short subject was Laurel and Hardy and Charlie Chaplin. In 1930s came the slowdown of the short subjects, basically produced by Warner Bros and Famous studios that owned their own theatres to showcase the films. By 1995s, the rise of television led to the strangulation of the live action- short and at the same time the fall cartoon short. Since the 1960s, majority of the directors of short films have been special studio projects or independent film makers. Since the 1980s, short film term was being used for short subject. Short film as a term describes the non- commercial film that is much shorter in time length than a feature film/ an analogy that can be drawn for short film to a feature film is that of a novella and a novel. The short filmmakers heavily depend on the short film festivals and art exhibitions to showcase their short films. At the same time, these film makers have more freedom to take up more difficult topics than normal feature films as the risks are lower. Short film making is now a growing as more and more amateurs, students, common man, and enthusiasts are taking this up because of the affordability of the technology to make such films. At the same time one can showcase his work to the world by uploading it on web portals and sharing it with others. It is an area where people are turning to as a hobby, as an art, to achieve their form expressions. (Wiernicki) THE SHORT FILM FESTIVALS Festival de Cannes The Festival is an apolitical no-mans-land, a microcosm of what the world would be like if people could contact each other directly and speak the same language. Jean Cocteau Being first large international cultural event after the World War II, the Festival de Cannes opened on 20th September, 1946. The Palme dOr was created in 1955. Palme dOr became the enduring symbol of the Cannes Film Festival, awarded each and every year since to the director of the Best Feature Film of the Official Competition. At present, Festival de Cannes invites film makers from around the world to present their work in one place and exchange cultural experiences. The selections for the awards are done from a nomination of films from all over the world, from different socio-economic backgrounds, different cultures, and different historical backgrounds. Cannes offers an opportunity to determine a particular countrys image of its cinema. Festival de Cannes is a melting pot of global cinema and filmmakers. This is the reason why I have undertaken the study of the award winning short films at festival de Cannes. (Festival History) Oscar Short Film Awards TheAcademy Awards, also known as theOscars, are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences(AMPAS). The AMPAS recognizes the excellence of professionals in the film industry, including directors, actors, and writers. The1st Academy Awards ceremony was held Thursday, May 16, 1929, at the Hotel RooseveltinHollywoodto honor outstanding film achievements of 1927 and 1928. Since 2002, the awards have been broadcast from the Kodak Theatre. The formal ceremony at which the awards are presented is one of the most prominent award ceremonies in the world. It is also the oldest award ceremony in the media, and many other award ceremonies such as theGrammy Awards(for music), Golden Globe Awards(all forms of visual media), and Emmy Awards(for television) are often modeled from the Academy. The Oscar Award is given to Short Films with entries from across the world due its prestige involved with the award. The Oscar Awards are given to Short Films in three categories within the Short Film category. These categories are: Best Animated Short Film AwardBest Documentary Short Subject AwardBest Live Action Short FilmSundance Film Festival TheSundance Film Festival takes place annually in the state of Utah, in theUnited States. It is the largest independent cinema festival in the U.S.Held every year in January inPark City, Salt Lake City, and Ogden, as well as theSundance Resort, the festival is the premier showcase for the new work of arts from across the world of independent filmmakers. The festival comprises of competitive sections for world over dramatic and documentary films, both feature-length films and short films, and a group of non-competitive showcase sections. Initially the Festival was a low- profile venue for small-budget, independent directors from outside the Hollywood. Now it has changed to a media extravaganza for Hollywood celebrity actors, directors, and luxury lounges set up by companies that are not affiliated with Sundance. The Sundance Festival has tried to change these activities in recent times, beginning from 2007 with their Focus on Film campaign. From 2009 onwards some changes were made to the Sundance Film Festival. Some of the changes made include: a new programming category called NEXT for extremely low-budget films, and the Sundance Film Festival U.S.A. program, in which eight of the festivals films will be shown in eight theaters around the country, a very good initiative as more people will get access to the films that only few selected audience gets. Sundance over time has shown is credibility as being the international festival for feature length and short- films. It is now recognized the world over as one of the important festivals to look for each year. It still has a long way to go till it reaches the level of Cannes Film Festival and Oscars. Aspen Filmfest Aspen Filmfest began in 1979 in Aspen, Colorado, USA. The Aspen Film organizes a major movie event every season, contributing to an extensive education program, and hosts of numerous special presentations. Each year, some 30,000 people participate in this festival. Aspen Filmfest believes in the philosophy of striving to enlighten, enrich, educate, and entertain audience through the films. Aspen Filmfest is known for its commitment to original content. They screen more than 200 films each year, which are regional debuts and might not be available to the local audiences. The Aspen short film festival receives entry not only from US but from world over. There is also a special award given in collaboration with BAFTA/ LA giving it affiliation with BAFTA awards and also credibility but with the American perspective added to it. KNOWLEDGE GAP Looking at the current literature review, we see that there is a knowledge gap regarding the study of Short Films in the contemporary cinema as a communication medium. This subject requires an in-depth analysis and more research to come up with some perspectives in this area. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 1. To analyze the Form of award winning Short Films taken from a randomized selection, from contemporary cinema (last ten years), from Short Film Festivals held between 2000- 2009: Cannes Palme dOr du court mÃÆ' ©trage, Oscar Short Film Award, Aspen Filmfest Award, and Sundance Short Film Awards, and analyse the form of Short films. 2. To analyse the Content of the award winning Short Films in context of political, sociological, economical, and historical backgrounds. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY The Qualitative research methodology is used in this study. The method would involve analyses of the form and content of the Short Films. The Sample: The award winning Short Films taken from a randomized selection, from reputed Short Film Festivals held across the world between 2000- 2009. These festivals are: Cannes Palme dOr du court mÃÆ' ©trage, Oscar Short Film Award, Aspen Filmfest Award, and Sundance Short Film Awards. The following Short Films have been selected for the study: 1. Movie: Gridlock Director: Dirk BeliÃÆ' «n Country: Belgium Award: Oscar best live action short film, 2003; Aspen Shorts fest, 2002 2. Movie: Strangers Director: Guy Nattiv and Erez Tadmor Country: Israel Award: Aspen Shorts fest, 2003; Sundance Film Festival, 2003 3. Movie: Ver Llover Director: Elisa Miller Country: Mexico Award: Cannes Film Festival, 2007 4. Movie: Sniffer Director: Bobbie Peers Country: Norway Awards: Cannes Film Festival, 2009 5. Movie: Oktapodi Director: Julien Bocabeille, FranÃÆ' §ois-Xavier Chanioux, Olivier Delabarre, Thierry Marchand , Quentin Marmier and Emud Mokhberi Country: France Awards: Oscar best animated shorts winner, 2007 6. Movie: Spider Director: Nash Edgerton Country: Australia Award: Aspen shorts fest, 2007; Sundance Film Festival, 2007 Why the above Sample? The above following sample has been chosen for the reason being that the Festival de Cannes(le Festival de Cannes), Oscars, Aspen Filmfest, and Sundance Film Festival, are one of the worlds oldest, finest and most prestigious film festivals which have a very good representation of directors from across the world from different cultural, political, historical, religious, economical, and sociological backgrounds. This provides us with a variety of content for our study. The above movies are selected also on the basis of them being a part of contemporary cinema. How to Study Short Films Some of the salient points/ questions that will be used to do this study of short films are as follows: 1. Who is telling the story? Why is it being told? Does it appear to have a purpose?(media agencies, authorial voice, writers and auteurs, marketing, economics, ideology) 2. How is it experienced? Who consumes it, where and in what way?(readers and media audiences- private and public experience, narrative structures) 3. How is it made?(film technology, publishing and episodic publishing-the differences they make to the production process as well as to the finished product) 4. How does it construct meaning?(film language and written language-expectations of audiences and readers, codes and conventions, narrative structures) 5. How does it represent its subject- especially with reference to period?(representation, use of stereotypes, representation of the past) (FILM STUDY GUIDE FOR TO KILL A MOCKINGBIRD, 2003) 6. Three Ways of Thinking Talking About Films (Wilder, 1997) Literary Aspects Dramatic Aspects Cinematic Aspects Who are the characters in the film? Did the actors make you forget they were acting? How? What vivid visual images did you note? What did they make you feel or think about? What is the films setting? Were costumes, make-up, and set equally important to the success of the film? What sounds or music do you remember? What did they make you feel or think about? What are the main plot elements? In what scene was an actors voice (pitch, volume, expression) particularly effective? What scenes can you understand even without dialogue? Why? From whose point of view is the story told? Select a scene that must have been difficult to act. How did the actor make his or her body movements appropriate and convincing? What scene has very effective or unusual editing? What is the theme of the film? Describe a scene in which facial expression was important. What feelings were developed? Were words necessary? If the film uses special effects, do they add to or detract from your enjoyment of the film? What is the mood of the film? Did the actors establish their characters more through dialogue or through movement and facial expressions? . What symbols did you notice? How is this film like or unlike other films by the director? Does this director have a recognizable style? . . Was there anything about the acting, set, or costumes that bothered you or interfered with your watching of the film? LIMITATIONS OF RESEARCH 1. The selection of the short films could have been broader and incorporated from more film festivals from across the world. 2. More methods like semiotics could have been used for the analysis of the short films. 3. Difficulty in access to short film movies from across the world and across film festivals. This includes difficulty in procuring even the award winning short films. EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION Given that the art of making Short Films is on the upward trend it is necessary to analyze the current trends, narratives, and the context of the Short Films genre in our contemporary cinema. We have enough knowledge on feature length movies but we lack information on the Short Films of our age. The study of this medium is important as Short films are a highly effective medium of communication and will gain importance going forward. As more and more people are turning towards Short Film making due to accessibility to technology, it is one field that needs attention in our world of cinema. A study of its content will give us a better understanding of the Short Films and world around us through their camera scope is imperative. EXPLORING THE SHORT FILMS Movie: Gridlock Director: Dirk BeliÃÆ' «n Country: Belgium Award: Oscar best live action short film, 2003; Aspen Shorts fest, 2002 THE STORYBOARD The short film starts off with light summery music with nothing clear on the camera but a blur. Slowly the camera gets into focus and we see that it is headlight of the car. The music playing in the background is singing about a sunny day but when the camera gets into focus we realize that it is snowing heavily. The camera then moves up the across the bonnet of the car to focus on the man sitting inside the car. The man looks like in his forties, bald (looks like his style not natural), sporting a little hair under the lower lip, wearing a suit, light blue shirt, with a blue tie, and spectacles. The radio becomes audible now and the music stops on the radio and the news start. The lady on the radio news tells about the traffic jam that there is on the road Antwerp- Ghent. The man listens to it and then switches it off by cursing at it and saying yes, I can see that. Stupid Bitch. At this scene the camera is focusing on the scene that it visible from the front window of the car portra ying lot of snow and jam. The man in the car seems very annoyed with the jam. He starts cursing the people who are working on clearing the road inside the car only. As the man is in the process of taking out his medicines an ambulance whizzes past his car with its loud siren at which the man freaks out and curses Jesus Christ! Assholes! the man then takes his medicines and breathes heavily after that for first few breathes and then relaxes. He looks into his watch for time. The camera all this time is placed right behind the steering wheel dashboard. Now it moves to the side passenger seat in the front where a newly bought mobile phone lies inside its open box. The man says to himself loudly, Lets see if this thing is as good as the guy said. He dials a number. There is honking of a car from behind which annoys him again and he shouts inside the car only at the person in the car behind and starts driving with the phone between his shoulder blade and right ear. The car stops. The phone rings in some home where the camera is focusing on the table with the phone and a Japanese sword also there on the stand. The table is placed right on the side of the wooden staircase leading to the higher floors. A chair in the background with a lamp to its side comes in the blur of the camera. The phone rings. We hear a television noise in the background and at the same time a girl suddenly gets up from behind the table. The girl seems about 5 years in age with golden hair knotted into two little buns on the head holding a doll with long hair which is tied into two pony tails and wearing a red frock. The girl picks up the phone and the following conversation happens with the camera shifting to the scene of the person talking from the same angle as it was before. Girl: hello Man: hey, honey, its daddy. Girl: daddy? Man: yes honey, its daddy. Girl: Hi daddy. Man: sweetie, is mommy there? Girl: no, daddy, mommys upstairsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ (As the girl is talking on the phone she starts moving towards the pram to keep her doll in it. In the process the phone falls from the table and the man couldnt hear the upstairs) Man: honey? Hello, what did you say? Girl: hello Man: say, sweetie, is mommy there? Girl: mommys upstairs in the bedroom with uncle Wim. (The girl is playing with the wire of the phone as she says this. On hearing this the man starts stuttering a bit and is totally flabbergasted) Man: uncle Wim? But we dont have an uncle Wim, sweetie. Girl: yes we do. Mommys upstairs with uncle Wim. (On hearing this, the man gets restless and doesnt know what to say. The girl keeps calling him daddy on the phone. The camera focuses on his lips.) Man: honey, I want you to do something for meà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ The camera then focuses on the girl as the man explains the girl what to do. She stands in one place listening intently and not moving a bit. The television noise is still there in the background. The camera moves around the girl slowly, withdrawing back from the girl. The girl leaves the phone receiver on the table and walks up the stair. The camera shifts to the man in the car who is very restless and takes one more round of his pills. The man still holding the phone to his ear is waiting for the girl to get back on the phone. The restlessness is still there as he keeps moving his hand over his head and breathing heavily. The girl comes down from the stairs. The girl picks up the phone. Girl: hello daddy? Man: what happened? The camera shifts to a room upstairs with the door bolted. The girl walks in the frame from behind and goes by the door. She hears moans and groans of her mother inside the room when she puts her ear against the door. Girl: I went upstairs and knocked on the door, like you asked me to. The girl knocks on the door and then calls mommy, mommy, but she only hears the moans getting louder. Then she says, I heard daddys car. Hes home. The door opens and a nude woman screams at the girl and then runs away into the corridor into the bathroom. Then the camera pans towards the bedroom. An obese man there was wearing his pants in a hurry and looking at the girl in her eyes. He had spiked hair and a French beard. Fear was there in his eyes. Now we hear background sound of the girl talking on the phone explaining what she saw and happened as the camera moves with the girl in what she had just done while she was gone and phone receiver was on the table. At the same time there is light music that comes in as the girl runs towards the noise she heard and the music becomes much louder as the girl sees her mother lying on the bathroom floor dead. The girl starts rolling her finger in her hair. Girl: and she ran into the bathroom and fell on the floorà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ and I think she is dead. The camera shifts to the man in the car. Man: dead?! No, no, noà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦. The man seems to get scared and starts moving his hand over his bald head in tension. Man: and uncle Wim? The camera shifts to the girl sitting by her mother and uncle Wim in the background. When the girl looks at him, he shuffles his steps a bit and runs. Then we hear a noise of a glass breaking. The girl moves to the other room Girl: hes hurt too. Then the camera follows her to another room. She walks past some broken pieces of glass with blood around them. Girl: there was blood on the floor. Man: blood? Girl: uncle Wim wasnt there anymore. The camera gives a shot of an open window with white curtains fluttering with the snowfall outside. The view is that of a night and barren trees silhouette in the background. The camera then moves to the window and shifts slowly towards the area below the window where a figure of a man is there flat on the ground and no movement. The music is getting grimmer but still lighter in the intensity of its sound. Girl: and I looked down and I think hes dead. In the swimming pool. Man: Swimming pool? Swimming pool? What swimming pool? The man looks stunned and moves his mobile phone from his ear. He looks at the number on the mobile phone after hearing the swimming pool. And then he realizes the number he has dialed. A car honks at the back. Man: holy shit! Girl: daddy? FORM The movie has a very serious and frustrated mood in the beginning which is betrayed by the opening song which makes it sound nice and jolly. The movie focuses a lot on the close shots when the characters are talking. The movement of the camera is usually when there is no speech taking place. For example, when the man talks its focused on his face or his lips. When the phone was ringing the camera stayed on the phone till the little girl came into the scene. During the flashback the speed of the scenes goes in slow-motion and all the shots are from a stationary place. The camera just follows from where it is rather than moving with the characters. Throughout the movie the sounds of the natural surroundings are used. The music is only used once the little girl starts explaining what all happened after she did what he had told her to do. The music comes in for the back flash part of the short film. The music used is also very grim and gothic type. The music gets louder when the death of the mother is shown and church bells for both the mother and uncle Wim. Once the man realizes that it is a wrong number that he has dialed, the music stops playing in the background. Music and the slowing of the scenes happen only in the flashback. While in the present scenario natural surrounding sounds are used with more focus on close shots. CONTENT The short film was made in 2001 when the mobile phones were just growing in the world. So we see an upper class man, as he is driving a Mercedes car and his looks are that of a business man or such other job. What we see in the film is how a wrong connection

Saturday, July 20, 2019

Middle East Recovery Strategies after the Financial Crisis

Middle East Recovery Strategies after the Financial Crisis The global business crisis 2007 that started in USA has spread its impacts over the world and no countries economy is spared from its impact. We are aiming to test the willingness of five countries as a case study (Kingdom of Bahrain, Kingdom Saudi Arabia, State of Kuwait, Islamic Republic of Iran, and Republic Turkey) top overcomes the impact of this crisis. We an extensive research study about the economy status before, during and through the process of the recovery from the impacts of the crisis, and conducted two types of questionnaires to gather more information. As a result of our analysis, we found whose countries are actually willing enough to overcome the crisis and who arent. The countries we listed as unwilling to overcome the crisis should apply new strategies if they want to recover it. 1. Introduction Everyone nowadays, no matter what are their background, position or level of education have heard about the global business crisis (in which it includes financial and economic crisis), and felt its impacts in different aspects and on different levels.   It became the talk of the day.   The financial and economic crisis that was initiated in the USAs financial market in 2007 has casted its dark shadows all over the world through the international trade channels. This is because the national systems of almost all countries in the world are interlinked to the USAs market. What made this crisis to become a global phenomenon that is, rapidly and continuously spread from the USA to hit the economy of most countries is the direct link between many currencies to the US dollar. As the US dollar collapsed and hit the rock bottom, it ruthlessly dragged them down along with it.   By observing the US economy, we can see that there are many reasons that are the causes of this crisis. Most of them are related to their strategy; the mistakes in the monetary policy that came from the lack of the global balances and failure of financial regulations (subprime mortgages crisis, where banks encouraged irrational public support for housing investment giving estate loans without pledge).When loaners couldnt fulfill installments due to high interest rates, bankers took over those real estates and attempted to sell them. As this occurred a lot, supply exceeded demand causing huge decreases of prices of estates where the lack of liquidity creating financial crisis led to economic crisis. The global crisis has different levels of effects due to several aspects such as social, educational, financial, economical, political, health and so on. Some of these effects included low economic growth, high unemployment, disrupted international monetary systems, inflation, migration as governments tried to export unemployment elsewhere, etc.   Financial analysts suggested many solutions to o vercome this problem, such as: applying real democracy or thorough reform to existing democratic system,   democratize public service and local government, restructure of finance, extend the scope of financial market, create retail financial instruments to provide greater security to customers, re-specialize economies, reduce global imbalances, reduce income concentration, global governance reform and reeducate economists. A global downturn needs a global response. However, what actually is happening is that suggested and applied individual solutions came from decision makers of the developed countries which are focusing only on their own economics, leaving behind developing countries as victims to this crisis. It is easier for the developed countries to stand back on their feet due to the availability of liquidity, whereas, this is not the case with the developing countries. Our paper focuses on the willingness of five selected countries: Kingdom Of Bahrain, Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia, State of Kuwait, Republic Islamic of Iran, and Republic of Turkey to overcome this crisis. Well discuss the real steps taken by the governments and decision makers in these countries to conclude how effective these steps are. As a result, we will determine whether each of the selected countries have the ability and willingness to overcome this crisis. The aim of this paper is to point out to decision makers whether the mea surements applied in these five countries will help them to recover from this crisis or not and whether the decision makers adapt the right strategies or have to reconsider appropriate solutions. 2. Literature Overview Starting with a general overview of the Middle East impact, we see that the global financial and economic crisis has different levels of negative effects over some specific regions; the Arab region probably is one of the most badly exposed to its negative impacts. Even among this region itself, this can be divided into several groups according to their economic and financial situations. We can say that there is the oil producing countries group; its the group that has the highest GDP and the lowest unemployment rate, in which Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia belong to. Such countries got strongly hit by the crisis since they rely on the overseas investments, especially with the US and Europe (Drine, 2009).   The fall was severe for such countries since OPECs price of oil dropped down from $130 per barrel to $40 per barrel (Rivlin, 2009). This is one of the factors that had led to huge damages that we are going to discuss through this chapter; discussing the impact and reaction of t he Global Crisis 2008 over Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia from the GCC. In addition to that, we are going to discuss the impacts and reactions of Turkey and Iran, in which Iran belong to the Middle East countries, but Turkey doesnt, but geographically, its located so close to it. For each country, we cover the situation before, as the occurrence of the crisis and then their attempts to overcome it according to points of view of different economists. Beginning with our own, the Kingdom Of Bahrain, we see that in the past 30 years, it has built its reputation as a financial services region hub (Ford, 2009). It proved to be more liable to the global banking finance in the region, about  ¼ of its GDP comes from the financial sector. 124 banks are established in Bahrain; 24 retail banks, 64 wholesale banks and 26 Islamic banks predominately investment banks. The blooming of Islamic banking is due to CBBs Central Bank of Bahrain which it placed much time and effort to attract new banks and firms, especially the Islamic banks (Matthew, 2009). Like most countries of the world, if not all, situations differed after it got struck by the crisis. As in October 9th 2008, the Prime Minister of Bahrain assured his highness King Hamad Bin Essa Al-Khalifa that the economy of Bahrain was safe because of the sound and clean financial and economic policies adopted by the government of Bahrain (IANS, 2008). However, this is not really the case as it showed later; some problems began to emerge as the result of getting hit by the crisis. Back in October 2008, about $2 billion loss was announced by GIB and ABC banks combined losses from investment that hit the subprime, which meant that Bahrain is one of the most exposed to the subprime assets (Matthew, 2009). In addition to that, Bahrains stock exchange closed down 2.70%, even though it is the least affected percentage among the key Gulf bourses. Some of Bahrains leading banks ( such as Investcorp that is listed by both London and Bahrain- got badly hit, it suffered a net loss of %511 million for 6 months at the end of Dec 2008). Lack of confidence was another problem; Rasheed Al-Maaraj (the governor of CBB Central bank of Bahrain-) stated that a lot of Banks have reported their results and we are confident about the quality of the banks, we do not see any problems yet on their loan profiles. Things have changed dramatically and one of the biggest changes, not only in Bah rain, but in the GCC and across global lack of confidence. Also, Bahrain got hit by the credit crisis not just in the banking sector, huge projects were delayed, such as Al Dur Power and Water project which was by GIS and KFH due to lack of finance, resulting in $2 billion losses (Ford, 2009).   As a natural response of any healthy business environment, the right thing to do is to find resolve those problems and overcome such obstacles. The government of Bahrain and CBB has introduced many measurements to minimize the downturn impact of the crisis. CBB has established a reform plan; it acted like a regulator to make series changes, and it seek to promote the country as an investment destination. Islamic Banking sector is a proposed key solution; this was highlighted by the Banker Magazine survey, which found that Bahrain has the biggest Islamic institutions in the world after the investment Dar of Kuwait (Ithmaar Bank, Arcapita Bank, Gulf Finance House and Islamic Company of the G ulf). (Ford, 2009).   In order to solve the lack of Confidence issue, the CBB aimed to offset the impact of capital outflows on liquidity by setting a scheme to allow banks to exchange their currency from US$ to Bahraini Dinars. However, this is not fully resolved since the Bahraini Dinar is linked to the US$. Sheikh Mohammed bin Essa Al-Khalifa (CEO of the Economic Developed funds) stated that The Major real estate development in Bahrain has been largely backed by Islamic banks and have not suffered from the most part of the credit crunch. In order to improve the credit flows, the banking sector was reformed and redesigned. CBB got involved with many investments and the creation of Islamic banks has increased their economical strength and power regarding their sustainability in long terms. (Matthew, 2009). So far, economists seem to be satisfied by the current economic situation in Bahrain. Moving to the west; to Bahrains good neighbor, Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia. In general, the Arab countries have 20% of the whole worlds gas and oil, however, they are accounted for less than 5% of the worlds total exports of fuel (Rivlin, 2009).   The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is one of the key oil producing Arab countries; it got blessed by and the economy bloomed after the discovery and production of oil, in which it started to have many huge investment and cash rich companies. As the crisis occurred and hit KSA in its way along with everyone else, the world witnessed a significant dropdown of oil prices, KSA had reduced their productions which led to affecting its oil revenue. This could mean the end of the current surpluses during the recent years. It also affected doing businesses with foreign companies that started to cost more and are no longer easily available as they used to be before the crisis. This had slowed down Saudi Arabias economic growth; caused delaying projects, and r esulted in the lack of confidence. In addition to that, long term policy issues in banking sector appeared; interbank rates had moved up sharply. Also, the stock markets have lost their attraction. Their %GDP had dropped from 28.4 in 2006 down to 24.9 in 2007. Their governments budget went under pressure, and noticeable inflation has appeared (Bourland, 2008). Apparently Saudi Arabias economy is relatively in a good shape, even after it got hit by the crisis and could easily adapt to the situation since they know what they should do, and   what are they going to apply. Mohammed Al-Jasser SAMAs governor- stated that: Our stimulus is mostly for oil production capacity enhancement and also large development projects were implementing. When the projects are finished, then we will reassess the need for additional spending. (Kuwait Times, 2009). SAMA- Saudi Arabia Monetary Agency- had lowered the repo rate and injected liquidity into the banks. One of the Saudi Arabias economical goals is based on completely shifting its focus of economic policy from controlling inflation to restoring confidence in the financial sector. Many companies in KSA are cash rich; thanks to their huge stock of assets, the government of KSA has an advantage over most countries in alleviating the impacts of extreme financial pressures caused by the crisis. The non-oil sector still has a chance for momentum growing, and thus, many projects can be carried out in spite of the existence of some obstacles. That caused, mainly, the limitation of access to higher costs that somewhat slows down the growth of private sectors than it was expected to be (Bourland, 2008). Also, KSA smartly had invested in large numbers in some upstream hydrocarbon projects to get more value from their oil. However, rather than completely relying their energy demands over oil and gas, they had investments in alternative energies so they can export more fuel (Rivlin, 2009).   Thus, based on that, we may assume that KS As economy is in pretty good shape. Going up to the north, there resides the State of Kuwait that once announced a five years $130 billion in an ambitious plan to grow its banking sector to be one of the financial centers in the GCC region before the business tragedy. However, lack of lucidity due to the global crisis, dramatic decrease of oil prices and having a rather poor business environment keeps Kuwait behind its rivals (which Bahrain is one of them). The banking sector in Kuwait has grown largely over the recent years, in which it increased from 2.3% of their nominal GDP in the late 80s to 11.8% GDP in 2007 (which is small compared to Bahrain). Kuwait relied on the high prices of Oil before the crisis occurred to rebus the private and public sector growth (BMI, 2008). The situation started to get bad once the crisis occurred. In 2008, as the global crisis occurred, Kuwaits banking sector fell down to 8.2%. The economy of Kuwait suffered and became under pressure, and the crisis raised interbank interest rates, w here the Central Bank of Kuwait considered this as a liquidity injection into a system. There have also been real estate curbs. (BMI, 2008). Kuwaits Gulf Bank suffered a total loss of $1.54 Billion during the same year. This forced the governments in the gulf to pump money into banks to salvage them (Drine, 2009). In addition to that, inflation reached 11% on June 2008, which was probably the result of the drop down of oil and commodity prices (EIU, 2008). Unlike the GCC currencies, the Kuwaiti Dinar is not paged to the US Dollar; therefore, due to its quasi-independence monetary policy, it shouldnt be dragged down by the US dollar. Sadly however, this flexibility only exists in theory.   Inflammation remained the same in Kuwait as the rest of the GCC. On Sept 23rd 2008, CBK Central Bank of Kuwait- stated to the press that theyll undertake the appropriate measures without hesitation. Itll provide necessary liquidity to any local banking institution. However, it didnt boost it muc h since there was low confidence in economy. It has also raised reserved requirements. The new suggested rule of limiting monthly loan installments from the previous 50% of borrowers salaries to 40% has controlled inflation. Kuwaiti Authorities tried to deal with inflation by active attempts to cut down the loan growth of late. It also has tried to urge lenders to restrict credit growth. (BMI, 2008). Also, the government institutions such as KIA -Kuwait Investment Agency- and the KPC -Kuwait Petroleum Corporation- in addition to the public Authority for Social security deposited their funds in some local commercial banks rather than holding them at the CBK. (EIU, 2008).   Yet, Is Kuwait going to be successful in overcoming the impact of the crisis? By November 2008, NBK National Bank of Kuwait announced a stunning 10.5% raise in 9 months profit, while the KFH (Kuwait Finance House) which is an Islamic Bank   has a 25% increase in profits for the same period of time (EIU, 2008) . Although Kuwait seems to have an opportunity in the banking sector and general business environment in the GCC, its three rivals are still ahead of it. It still has to make changes. However, Manaf Al-Hajeri General Manager of Kuwaits Financial Center Markaz- has a different point of view. He sees that within the next 10 years, the Middle East will still be highly attractive to banking investments, direct investments and asset management, thanks to its high sovereign reserves, favorable demographics and high house formations (MARKAZ, 2009). With such a contradiction in different point of views, the best way to get the accurate answer, to whether Kuwait is going to be successful in overcoming the impact of the global crisis is through an intensive field study. Our next stop resides to the east, The Islamic Republic Iran. Iran is economically isolated from the rest of the world, and thus, many people thought that Iran was secured from the global economic and financial crisis. But thats clearly not the case. The most critical issues that influenced Irans economy is that it heavily depended on the Oil revenues. As the oil prices searched the peak, Irans government was supposed to save a part of its income. However, it spent it all on subsidized lending, massive bank credits, imprudent social spending and substation imports. This phenomenon is known as the Dutch Disease. When the oil prices dropped badly due to the global crisis, Iran suddenly found itself facing a financial crunch. Also, the government of Iran controls more than 80% of its economy due to political reasons after the election of Ahmady Nijad which weakens its economy. In addition to that, the pressures of USAs government and its banks over Irans and the U.N. Security Council sa nctions made the situation even worse. In a healthy economy, the central bank should be independent from the government. However, this is not the current case in Iran, where Nijads government continues its interference in central bank affairs. (Amir, 2008).   As the crisis occurred, Irans economy had already suffered from many problems before the global crisis which made it more vulnerable to impacts of the crisis. Irans banks faced the same problems as its US rivals; they were severely hit by the crisis due to the non-repayment of house loans and that was caused by the decrease of the house prices which turned into the creation of the economic crisis. One of the signs of the impact in Iran is the 60% decrease in applying for constructing license and the complete stagnation in house trading. Abdoh Tabraizi, in a professional conference in Tehran University The Influence of Global Financial Crisis on Iran Economy stated that: the problem of the global economy accrued in Iran was du e to the decrease in house pricing. So, the people who bought the houses will not make their repayments and this happened because of the increase in food and petroleum prices (BBC, 2009). Due to the high dependency of Irans economy on oil revenue, it faced lack of liquidity as the oil prices dropped down, and its currency (the Toman) is facing a devaluation against the other currencies (Amir, 2008). The Republic of Iran denied the Global Crisis impacts over its economy and ignored all the economists warnings regarding its situation. It has no attempts in finding solutions to its current financial and economical situation (Amir, 2009). Leaving west to Europe, to the Republic of Turkey, where it actually faced an interesting event before the global crisis. In the years between 1990 and 2002, Turkey had experienced some very series crisiss that it had to confirm the Global crisis in 2007 through the stability of macroeconomic policies, structural reforms, social security reforms and employment packages that strengthen the financial sector giving it nowadays a strong economic structure compared to the past that could easily resist the impacts of the current global crisis. It had taken its lessons from the past and enabled them to be prepared for the global crisis. Therefore, since the first moment for the global crisis 2008 begins, it didnt touch Turkey very seriously. Turkeys banks didnt fail; all of the banks in Turkey could sustain themselves without any external support (Erdogan, 2009). As it got hit by the crisis from the day of 10 July 2007, in which it is the exact moment of the beginning of the crisis had affe cted Turkey seriously and until now it is still affecting it. Turkish currency showed the most resistance to the falling values comparing to the other currencies. It decreased only by 28% compared to the other currencies (e.g. 31%   Mexican Peso    Russian Ruble, 45% South Korean Won, 34% South African Rand, 40% UK à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¤ ). (Erdogan, 2009). In other words, as Ayse Yuksel stated in an interview, Turkey is in a rather great shape compared to the USA, Europe and England itself, also had way less damage in funds and mortgages compared to the USA (Sakar, 2009).   As for the banking sector, instead of becoming a problem like other countries, it became a security value due to its previous experience (Erdogan, 2009).   Turkey had taken many steps to overcome the global crisis; mainly to prevent the liquidity problem. For example, the Turkish Central bank had taken decisions in order to support the markets and the internal demand through the implementation of the monetary p olicy; they took measurements to re-function the credit change in the economy. In addition to implementing temporarily tax reductions in certain sectors such as housing, automotive, electronics, etc, Turkey was able to successfully protect its employees. (Erdogan, 2009). Turkey had announced that there were no problems existed and no actions are warranted; and if were needed, it can inject liquidity into the market and attract the funds held by its citizens overseas account back to Turkey, that is, providing forging currency liquidity (Hurriyet Daily News, 2009). 3. Methodology The purpose of our paper is to determine the willingness and ability of decision makers in our selected five developing Middle Eastern countries to overcome the ongoing economic crisis. According to the nature of our research, we will follow two approaches for collecting the information needed for this research paper. We are going to distribute two types of questionnaires, one for decision makers (type 1) and the other for the public (type 2). Our target population will be selected from Bahrain and we will use quota sampling method of size 170 (70 for type 1 and 100 for type 2). The period for the distribution of the questionnaire will start from the month of November to December 2009. Also we will do an interview with a Bahraini decision maker. Secondly, We will gather information by conducting extensive studying of existing papers, journals and articles regarding our topic; analyzing and comparing all together to reach proper conclusions based on facts and numbers In Type 1 questionnaire, we will include questions in which we can extract from how the decision makers feel about the crisis and what are they going to do to overcome the crisis. And as for Type 2, we will include questions in which we can extract from how the public feel about the crisis and how they are affected by it; how they are going to measure the steps followed by the decision makers in their countries to overcome the crisis. In the two types, we will use quantitative and qualitative questions (from both types distributed) to get needed information to meet our goal. After distributing the questionnaire and analyzing the results using MS-Excel in addition to SPSS software, we will measure how the decision makers reacted towards the global economic crisis are. We have also collected further information by conducting an interview with one of the decision makers in Bahrain who works for a financial sector. 4. Challenges The most significant event in this decade is the Global Economic and Financial Crisis 2008, where no country was spared from its brutal hits and negative effects. After this crisis, economists categorized the countries into two main divisions: the rich countries that have the power to withstand the crisis due to having a huge amount of assets that plays the key role in the process of recovering the impacts of the crisis, whereas the other countries which are not rich, thereby considered poor or average countries are the main victims of the crisis in two aspects; firstly they dont have enough assets for their economy to get back to track. Secondly, the solution strategies taken by rich countries to overcome the crisis do not put them in consideration, keeping them the weakest link (Wade,2009), (Meyn et al, 2009).  Ã‚   This catastrophe, adaption to it and the attempts to recover from it, illustrated to the world the true essence of the health of each countrys economy. In addition to that, it showed how clever and serious the decision makers and governments are in dealing with it. On the other hand, it also points to intentions of decision makers.   We focused on the willingness of five selected Middle Eastern countries (The Kingdom Of Bahrain, Kingdom Saudi Arabia, State Of Kuwait, Islamic Republic of Iran, Republic of Turkey) how decision makers of these countries and governments are willing to recover from the impact of this economical crisis. What procedures have they taken and how successful will they are. Our selection is based on the different nature and situations of the economy of each of the selected countries, and their different political strategies and views. We spotlighted on the Kingdom of Bahrain in our paper by gathering data from the public and decision makes in Bahrain and conducting an interview with a chosen decision maker in order to obtain most accurate result as possible. In addition to analyzing and comparing the published articles an d journals .On the other hand when we consider other countries, we limit our data resources to the existing articles, papers and journals from different  Ã‚  Ã‚   sources to discover the most accurate data that we will build our result on. Thats due to time and geographical constraints.   As a result of this paper, we will categorize the selected countries into those who are willing to recover from the crisis and those who are not. Our main audience is the decision makers, who can take benefits of this paper in evaluating their decisions, adapt it, and change it to make better solutions. Also the public can use the result of this paper to know the correct economic situation of their country, and how their governments are honest in announcing the economic state and whether they are serious to recover from this crisis, as a result they may press on their government to make major steps toward making better solutions. Unfortunately, we have a very limited time to complete the paper while such a research requires much longer time for more accurate data collection. We are enforced to submit the paper by the end of December 2009. Also, we cant reach decision makers because they are hard to find in such a short notice. In addition to that, we are limited to do our questionnaire in Bahrain only due to the geographical limitation. We will try to expand the scope of the questionnaire to include the concerned countries using emails, internet and online technology. 5. Proposed Solution According to the nature of our paper, and the geographical and time constraints, in order to achieve our goal, we will apply two approaches for gathering and analyzing information. The first one will apply to all our selected countries in which it highly depends on comparing and analyzing each countries economists and decision makers statements to sold facts and numbers, including (GDP growth, Oil GDP growth, PCI inflation) which considered to be the most significant signs of the country economical situation,  Ã‚   from neutral international organizations -including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -. As for the second approach that involves Bahrain only in which we contacted two types of questionnaires and an interview with a decision maker as an add up to the previous approach.   In order to identify whether the financial and economical situation in a country is recovering from the crisis, there are indicators (are known as Economy Indicators) that show whether its improvi ng, stable or turning down. Thus, our questionnaire and interview must be based on it. There are many indicators, but we will consider only on the important ones that are applicable to the business and economy to the countries that we elected. Some of the major indicators (Barnes, 2007, Investopedia ULC) include the following: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI): it shows how healthy the financial situation and determines the expenditures of economy by illustrating the spending power and confidences of consumers. Consumer Credit Report: it indicates the future spending over personal levels and it shows the changing amounts of outstanding loans on individuals. This includes (total debts, current annual rate of growth or decline, and total percentage of credit card delinquencies). It is considered as a major factor that helps to make more than the half of the total GDP. Consumer Price Index (CPI): is seen as a guide for inflation. It focuses on products that consumers buy and use on daily basis. CPI reflects the prices of goods in the markets, and its an important indicator in terms of moving the market and setting the monetary policy. Durable Goods: this involves high priced goods that last for three years, such as machinery, technology manufacturing, cars and other vehicles which indicates general economic expansions.   Employee Cost Index (ECI): it indicates the percentage of changes in employees salaries, bounces, and benefits in terms of wages per hours. It calculates the total cost of employees for a business. Employment Situation:   this indicates employment and unemployment rate. Its useful to understand the state of labor force.   This indicator could move the market dramatically. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): its an aggregate measure of the total economic production for a country. It is one of the most important indicators that illustrates the health of economy and, depending on it, prices of good and services are set in a certain country. It involve s personal consumption, investments, government expenditures, and the exports in a particular country. Existing Home Sales and Housing Starts: are two indicators that come in conjunctions, and this, illustrates the housing market in general. Those are long term indictors that show how many houses are sold. It deals with construction level, which means it shows also supply needed for it, and it shows the demand of consumers and comes in pretty handy in real estate markets. Money Supply: it is the amount of money floating around the economy and it is available for spending. It is controlled by the Central Bank of the country. Money Supply is based on how liquid the money is, which can directly affect economic growth and inflation. Mutual Funds Flows: this is an important concept in which to understand stocks and bond marketing. Non-Manufacturing activities: they involve service industries, such as telecommunications, in which they provide insight into the business area that may not be covered by other indicators. Product Price Index (PPI): its an index to the prices measured by the wholesalers, producers, and retailers that are considered the most powerful contributors to the consumer markets. The index comes in three levels: PPI Commodity Index that involves certain commodities such as crude oil; PPI stage of processing (SOP) Index where products are in an intermediate stage; and PPI Industry Index that involves the final stage and finished manufacturing of the products. And finally, theres the Trade Balance Report: it indicates the health of the economy of a country and its relationships with the rest of the world (Barnes, 2007). Our goal is to get a clear full view of the economy in a country. So, we designed two types of questionnaires, one for aimed for decision makers (type 1) and the other is aimed for the public (type 2), in which both questionnaires are based on economic indicators that we mentioned earlier. For both questionnaires, the methodology is CATI -Computer Aided Telephone Interview-, online form, paper forms, the framework timing is 2 21 December 2009, regarding samples, our goal is at least 69 for each type, our sampling method is quota, and our geographical coverage: Kingdom of Bahrain. In Type 1 questionnaire, we Middle East Recovery Strategies after the Financial Crisis Middle East Recovery Strategies after the Financial Crisis The global business crisis 2007 that started in USA has spread its impacts over the world and no countries economy is spared from its impact. We are aiming to test the willingness of five countries as a case study (Kingdom of Bahrain, Kingdom Saudi Arabia, State of Kuwait, Islamic Republic of Iran, and Republic Turkey) top overcomes the impact of this crisis. We an extensive research study about the economy status before, during and through the process of the recovery from the impacts of the crisis, and conducted two types of questionnaires to gather more information. As a result of our analysis, we found whose countries are actually willing enough to overcome the crisis and who arent. The countries we listed as unwilling to overcome the crisis should apply new strategies if they want to recover it. 1. Introduction Everyone nowadays, no matter what are their background, position or level of education have heard about the global business crisis (in which it includes financial and economic crisis), and felt its impacts in different aspects and on different levels.   It became the talk of the day.   The financial and economic crisis that was initiated in the USAs financial market in 2007 has casted its dark shadows all over the world through the international trade channels. This is because the national systems of almost all countries in the world are interlinked to the USAs market. What made this crisis to become a global phenomenon that is, rapidly and continuously spread from the USA to hit the economy of most countries is the direct link between many currencies to the US dollar. As the US dollar collapsed and hit the rock bottom, it ruthlessly dragged them down along with it.   By observing the US economy, we can see that there are many reasons that are the causes of this crisis. Most of them are related to their strategy; the mistakes in the monetary policy that came from the lack of the global balances and failure of financial regulations (subprime mortgages crisis, where banks encouraged irrational public support for housing investment giving estate loans without pledge).When loaners couldnt fulfill installments due to high interest rates, bankers took over those real estates and attempted to sell them. As this occurred a lot, supply exceeded demand causing huge decreases of prices of estates where the lack of liquidity creating financial crisis led to economic crisis. The global crisis has different levels of effects due to several aspects such as social, educational, financial, economical, political, health and so on. Some of these effects included low economic growth, high unemployment, disrupted international monetary systems, inflation, migration as governments tried to export unemployment elsewhere, etc.   Financial analysts suggested many solutions to o vercome this problem, such as: applying real democracy or thorough reform to existing democratic system,   democratize public service and local government, restructure of finance, extend the scope of financial market, create retail financial instruments to provide greater security to customers, re-specialize economies, reduce global imbalances, reduce income concentration, global governance reform and reeducate economists. A global downturn needs a global response. However, what actually is happening is that suggested and applied individual solutions came from decision makers of the developed countries which are focusing only on their own economics, leaving behind developing countries as victims to this crisis. It is easier for the developed countries to stand back on their feet due to the availability of liquidity, whereas, this is not the case with the developing countries. Our paper focuses on the willingness of five selected countries: Kingdom Of Bahrain, Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia, State of Kuwait, Republic Islamic of Iran, and Republic of Turkey to overcome this crisis. Well discuss the real steps taken by the governments and decision makers in these countries to conclude how effective these steps are. As a result, we will determine whether each of the selected countries have the ability and willingness to overcome this crisis. The aim of this paper is to point out to decision makers whether the mea surements applied in these five countries will help them to recover from this crisis or not and whether the decision makers adapt the right strategies or have to reconsider appropriate solutions. 2. Literature Overview Starting with a general overview of the Middle East impact, we see that the global financial and economic crisis has different levels of negative effects over some specific regions; the Arab region probably is one of the most badly exposed to its negative impacts. Even among this region itself, this can be divided into several groups according to their economic and financial situations. We can say that there is the oil producing countries group; its the group that has the highest GDP and the lowest unemployment rate, in which Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia belong to. Such countries got strongly hit by the crisis since they rely on the overseas investments, especially with the US and Europe (Drine, 2009).   The fall was severe for such countries since OPECs price of oil dropped down from $130 per barrel to $40 per barrel (Rivlin, 2009). This is one of the factors that had led to huge damages that we are going to discuss through this chapter; discussing the impact and reaction of t he Global Crisis 2008 over Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia from the GCC. In addition to that, we are going to discuss the impacts and reactions of Turkey and Iran, in which Iran belong to the Middle East countries, but Turkey doesnt, but geographically, its located so close to it. For each country, we cover the situation before, as the occurrence of the crisis and then their attempts to overcome it according to points of view of different economists. Beginning with our own, the Kingdom Of Bahrain, we see that in the past 30 years, it has built its reputation as a financial services region hub (Ford, 2009). It proved to be more liable to the global banking finance in the region, about  ¼ of its GDP comes from the financial sector. 124 banks are established in Bahrain; 24 retail banks, 64 wholesale banks and 26 Islamic banks predominately investment banks. The blooming of Islamic banking is due to CBBs Central Bank of Bahrain which it placed much time and effort to attract new banks and firms, especially the Islamic banks (Matthew, 2009). Like most countries of the world, if not all, situations differed after it got struck by the crisis. As in October 9th 2008, the Prime Minister of Bahrain assured his highness King Hamad Bin Essa Al-Khalifa that the economy of Bahrain was safe because of the sound and clean financial and economic policies adopted by the government of Bahrain (IANS, 2008). However, this is not really the case as it showed later; some problems began to emerge as the result of getting hit by the crisis. Back in October 2008, about $2 billion loss was announced by GIB and ABC banks combined losses from investment that hit the subprime, which meant that Bahrain is one of the most exposed to the subprime assets (Matthew, 2009). In addition to that, Bahrains stock exchange closed down 2.70%, even though it is the least affected percentage among the key Gulf bourses. Some of Bahrains leading banks ( such as Investcorp that is listed by both London and Bahrain- got badly hit, it suffered a net loss of %511 million for 6 months at the end of Dec 2008). Lack of confidence was another problem; Rasheed Al-Maaraj (the governor of CBB Central bank of Bahrain-) stated that a lot of Banks have reported their results and we are confident about the quality of the banks, we do not see any problems yet on their loan profiles. Things have changed dramatically and one of the biggest changes, not only in Bah rain, but in the GCC and across global lack of confidence. Also, Bahrain got hit by the credit crisis not just in the banking sector, huge projects were delayed, such as Al Dur Power and Water project which was by GIS and KFH due to lack of finance, resulting in $2 billion losses (Ford, 2009).   As a natural response of any healthy business environment, the right thing to do is to find resolve those problems and overcome such obstacles. The government of Bahrain and CBB has introduced many measurements to minimize the downturn impact of the crisis. CBB has established a reform plan; it acted like a regulator to make series changes, and it seek to promote the country as an investment destination. Islamic Banking sector is a proposed key solution; this was highlighted by the Banker Magazine survey, which found that Bahrain has the biggest Islamic institutions in the world after the investment Dar of Kuwait (Ithmaar Bank, Arcapita Bank, Gulf Finance House and Islamic Company of the G ulf). (Ford, 2009).   In order to solve the lack of Confidence issue, the CBB aimed to offset the impact of capital outflows on liquidity by setting a scheme to allow banks to exchange their currency from US$ to Bahraini Dinars. However, this is not fully resolved since the Bahraini Dinar is linked to the US$. Sheikh Mohammed bin Essa Al-Khalifa (CEO of the Economic Developed funds) stated that The Major real estate development in Bahrain has been largely backed by Islamic banks and have not suffered from the most part of the credit crunch. In order to improve the credit flows, the banking sector was reformed and redesigned. CBB got involved with many investments and the creation of Islamic banks has increased their economical strength and power regarding their sustainability in long terms. (Matthew, 2009). So far, economists seem to be satisfied by the current economic situation in Bahrain. Moving to the west; to Bahrains good neighbor, Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia. In general, the Arab countries have 20% of the whole worlds gas and oil, however, they are accounted for less than 5% of the worlds total exports of fuel (Rivlin, 2009).   The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is one of the key oil producing Arab countries; it got blessed by and the economy bloomed after the discovery and production of oil, in which it started to have many huge investment and cash rich companies. As the crisis occurred and hit KSA in its way along with everyone else, the world witnessed a significant dropdown of oil prices, KSA had reduced their productions which led to affecting its oil revenue. This could mean the end of the current surpluses during the recent years. It also affected doing businesses with foreign companies that started to cost more and are no longer easily available as they used to be before the crisis. This had slowed down Saudi Arabias economic growth; caused delaying projects, and r esulted in the lack of confidence. In addition to that, long term policy issues in banking sector appeared; interbank rates had moved up sharply. Also, the stock markets have lost their attraction. Their %GDP had dropped from 28.4 in 2006 down to 24.9 in 2007. Their governments budget went under pressure, and noticeable inflation has appeared (Bourland, 2008). Apparently Saudi Arabias economy is relatively in a good shape, even after it got hit by the crisis and could easily adapt to the situation since they know what they should do, and   what are they going to apply. Mohammed Al-Jasser SAMAs governor- stated that: Our stimulus is mostly for oil production capacity enhancement and also large development projects were implementing. When the projects are finished, then we will reassess the need for additional spending. (Kuwait Times, 2009). SAMA- Saudi Arabia Monetary Agency- had lowered the repo rate and injected liquidity into the banks. One of the Saudi Arabias economical goals is based on completely shifting its focus of economic policy from controlling inflation to restoring confidence in the financial sector. Many companies in KSA are cash rich; thanks to their huge stock of assets, the government of KSA has an advantage over most countries in alleviating the impacts of extreme financial pressures caused by the crisis. The non-oil sector still has a chance for momentum growing, and thus, many projects can be carried out in spite of the existence of some obstacles. That caused, mainly, the limitation of access to higher costs that somewhat slows down the growth of private sectors than it was expected to be (Bourland, 2008). Also, KSA smartly had invested in large numbers in some upstream hydrocarbon projects to get more value from their oil. However, rather than completely relying their energy demands over oil and gas, they had investments in alternative energies so they can export more fuel (Rivlin, 2009).   Thus, based on that, we may assume that KS As economy is in pretty good shape. Going up to the north, there resides the State of Kuwait that once announced a five years $130 billion in an ambitious plan to grow its banking sector to be one of the financial centers in the GCC region before the business tragedy. However, lack of lucidity due to the global crisis, dramatic decrease of oil prices and having a rather poor business environment keeps Kuwait behind its rivals (which Bahrain is one of them). The banking sector in Kuwait has grown largely over the recent years, in which it increased from 2.3% of their nominal GDP in the late 80s to 11.8% GDP in 2007 (which is small compared to Bahrain). Kuwait relied on the high prices of Oil before the crisis occurred to rebus the private and public sector growth (BMI, 2008). The situation started to get bad once the crisis occurred. In 2008, as the global crisis occurred, Kuwaits banking sector fell down to 8.2%. The economy of Kuwait suffered and became under pressure, and the crisis raised interbank interest rates, w here the Central Bank of Kuwait considered this as a liquidity injection into a system. There have also been real estate curbs. (BMI, 2008). Kuwaits Gulf Bank suffered a total loss of $1.54 Billion during the same year. This forced the governments in the gulf to pump money into banks to salvage them (Drine, 2009). In addition to that, inflation reached 11% on June 2008, which was probably the result of the drop down of oil and commodity prices (EIU, 2008). Unlike the GCC currencies, the Kuwaiti Dinar is not paged to the US Dollar; therefore, due to its quasi-independence monetary policy, it shouldnt be dragged down by the US dollar. Sadly however, this flexibility only exists in theory.   Inflammation remained the same in Kuwait as the rest of the GCC. On Sept 23rd 2008, CBK Central Bank of Kuwait- stated to the press that theyll undertake the appropriate measures without hesitation. Itll provide necessary liquidity to any local banking institution. However, it didnt boost it muc h since there was low confidence in economy. It has also raised reserved requirements. The new suggested rule of limiting monthly loan installments from the previous 50% of borrowers salaries to 40% has controlled inflation. Kuwaiti Authorities tried to deal with inflation by active attempts to cut down the loan growth of late. It also has tried to urge lenders to restrict credit growth. (BMI, 2008). Also, the government institutions such as KIA -Kuwait Investment Agency- and the KPC -Kuwait Petroleum Corporation- in addition to the public Authority for Social security deposited their funds in some local commercial banks rather than holding them at the CBK. (EIU, 2008).   Yet, Is Kuwait going to be successful in overcoming the impact of the crisis? By November 2008, NBK National Bank of Kuwait announced a stunning 10.5% raise in 9 months profit, while the KFH (Kuwait Finance House) which is an Islamic Bank   has a 25% increase in profits for the same period of time (EIU, 2008) . Although Kuwait seems to have an opportunity in the banking sector and general business environment in the GCC, its three rivals are still ahead of it. It still has to make changes. However, Manaf Al-Hajeri General Manager of Kuwaits Financial Center Markaz- has a different point of view. He sees that within the next 10 years, the Middle East will still be highly attractive to banking investments, direct investments and asset management, thanks to its high sovereign reserves, favorable demographics and high house formations (MARKAZ, 2009). With such a contradiction in different point of views, the best way to get the accurate answer, to whether Kuwait is going to be successful in overcoming the impact of the global crisis is through an intensive field study. Our next stop resides to the east, The Islamic Republic Iran. Iran is economically isolated from the rest of the world, and thus, many people thought that Iran was secured from the global economic and financial crisis. But thats clearly not the case. The most critical issues that influenced Irans economy is that it heavily depended on the Oil revenues. As the oil prices searched the peak, Irans government was supposed to save a part of its income. However, it spent it all on subsidized lending, massive bank credits, imprudent social spending and substation imports. This phenomenon is known as the Dutch Disease. When the oil prices dropped badly due to the global crisis, Iran suddenly found itself facing a financial crunch. Also, the government of Iran controls more than 80% of its economy due to political reasons after the election of Ahmady Nijad which weakens its economy. In addition to that, the pressures of USAs government and its banks over Irans and the U.N. Security Council sa nctions made the situation even worse. In a healthy economy, the central bank should be independent from the government. However, this is not the current case in Iran, where Nijads government continues its interference in central bank affairs. (Amir, 2008).   As the crisis occurred, Irans economy had already suffered from many problems before the global crisis which made it more vulnerable to impacts of the crisis. Irans banks faced the same problems as its US rivals; they were severely hit by the crisis due to the non-repayment of house loans and that was caused by the decrease of the house prices which turned into the creation of the economic crisis. One of the signs of the impact in Iran is the 60% decrease in applying for constructing license and the complete stagnation in house trading. Abdoh Tabraizi, in a professional conference in Tehran University The Influence of Global Financial Crisis on Iran Economy stated that: the problem of the global economy accrued in Iran was du e to the decrease in house pricing. So, the people who bought the houses will not make their repayments and this happened because of the increase in food and petroleum prices (BBC, 2009). Due to the high dependency of Irans economy on oil revenue, it faced lack of liquidity as the oil prices dropped down, and its currency (the Toman) is facing a devaluation against the other currencies (Amir, 2008). The Republic of Iran denied the Global Crisis impacts over its economy and ignored all the economists warnings regarding its situation. It has no attempts in finding solutions to its current financial and economical situation (Amir, 2009). Leaving west to Europe, to the Republic of Turkey, where it actually faced an interesting event before the global crisis. In the years between 1990 and 2002, Turkey had experienced some very series crisiss that it had to confirm the Global crisis in 2007 through the stability of macroeconomic policies, structural reforms, social security reforms and employment packages that strengthen the financial sector giving it nowadays a strong economic structure compared to the past that could easily resist the impacts of the current global crisis. It had taken its lessons from the past and enabled them to be prepared for the global crisis. Therefore, since the first moment for the global crisis 2008 begins, it didnt touch Turkey very seriously. Turkeys banks didnt fail; all of the banks in Turkey could sustain themselves without any external support (Erdogan, 2009). As it got hit by the crisis from the day of 10 July 2007, in which it is the exact moment of the beginning of the crisis had affe cted Turkey seriously and until now it is still affecting it. Turkish currency showed the most resistance to the falling values comparing to the other currencies. It decreased only by 28% compared to the other currencies (e.g. 31%   Mexican Peso    Russian Ruble, 45% South Korean Won, 34% South African Rand, 40% UK à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¤ ). (Erdogan, 2009). In other words, as Ayse Yuksel stated in an interview, Turkey is in a rather great shape compared to the USA, Europe and England itself, also had way less damage in funds and mortgages compared to the USA (Sakar, 2009).   As for the banking sector, instead of becoming a problem like other countries, it became a security value due to its previous experience (Erdogan, 2009).   Turkey had taken many steps to overcome the global crisis; mainly to prevent the liquidity problem. For example, the Turkish Central bank had taken decisions in order to support the markets and the internal demand through the implementation of the monetary p olicy; they took measurements to re-function the credit change in the economy. In addition to implementing temporarily tax reductions in certain sectors such as housing, automotive, electronics, etc, Turkey was able to successfully protect its employees. (Erdogan, 2009). Turkey had announced that there were no problems existed and no actions are warranted; and if were needed, it can inject liquidity into the market and attract the funds held by its citizens overseas account back to Turkey, that is, providing forging currency liquidity (Hurriyet Daily News, 2009). 3. Methodology The purpose of our paper is to determine the willingness and ability of decision makers in our selected five developing Middle Eastern countries to overcome the ongoing economic crisis. According to the nature of our research, we will follow two approaches for collecting the information needed for this research paper. We are going to distribute two types of questionnaires, one for decision makers (type 1) and the other for the public (type 2). Our target population will be selected from Bahrain and we will use quota sampling method of size 170 (70 for type 1 and 100 for type 2). The period for the distribution of the questionnaire will start from the month of November to December 2009. Also we will do an interview with a Bahraini decision maker. Secondly, We will gather information by conducting extensive studying of existing papers, journals and articles regarding our topic; analyzing and comparing all together to reach proper conclusions based on facts and numbers In Type 1 questionnaire, we will include questions in which we can extract from how the decision makers feel about the crisis and what are they going to do to overcome the crisis. And as for Type 2, we will include questions in which we can extract from how the public feel about the crisis and how they are affected by it; how they are going to measure the steps followed by the decision makers in their countries to overcome the crisis. In the two types, we will use quantitative and qualitative questions (from both types distributed) to get needed information to meet our goal. After distributing the questionnaire and analyzing the results using MS-Excel in addition to SPSS software, we will measure how the decision makers reacted towards the global economic crisis are. We have also collected further information by conducting an interview with one of the decision makers in Bahrain who works for a financial sector. 4. Challenges The most significant event in this decade is the Global Economic and Financial Crisis 2008, where no country was spared from its brutal hits and negative effects. After this crisis, economists categorized the countries into two main divisions: the rich countries that have the power to withstand the crisis due to having a huge amount of assets that plays the key role in the process of recovering the impacts of the crisis, whereas the other countries which are not rich, thereby considered poor or average countries are the main victims of the crisis in two aspects; firstly they dont have enough assets for their economy to get back to track. Secondly, the solution strategies taken by rich countries to overcome the crisis do not put them in consideration, keeping them the weakest link (Wade,2009), (Meyn et al, 2009).  Ã‚   This catastrophe, adaption to it and the attempts to recover from it, illustrated to the world the true essence of the health of each countrys economy. In addition to that, it showed how clever and serious the decision makers and governments are in dealing with it. On the other hand, it also points to intentions of decision makers.   We focused on the willingness of five selected Middle Eastern countries (The Kingdom Of Bahrain, Kingdom Saudi Arabia, State Of Kuwait, Islamic Republic of Iran, Republic of Turkey) how decision makers of these countries and governments are willing to recover from the impact of this economical crisis. What procedures have they taken and how successful will they are. Our selection is based on the different nature and situations of the economy of each of the selected countries, and their different political strategies and views. We spotlighted on the Kingdom of Bahrain in our paper by gathering data from the public and decision makes in Bahrain and conducting an interview with a chosen decision maker in order to obtain most accurate result as possible. In addition to analyzing and comparing the published articles an d journals .On the other hand when we consider other countries, we limit our data resources to the existing articles, papers and journals from different  Ã‚  Ã‚   sources to discover the most accurate data that we will build our result on. Thats due to time and geographical constraints.   As a result of this paper, we will categorize the selected countries into those who are willing to recover from the crisis and those who are not. Our main audience is the decision makers, who can take benefits of this paper in evaluating their decisions, adapt it, and change it to make better solutions. Also the public can use the result of this paper to know the correct economic situation of their country, and how their governments are honest in announcing the economic state and whether they are serious to recover from this crisis, as a result they may press on their government to make major steps toward making better solutions. Unfortunately, we have a very limited time to complete the paper while such a research requires much longer time for more accurate data collection. We are enforced to submit the paper by the end of December 2009. Also, we cant reach decision makers because they are hard to find in such a short notice. In addition to that, we are limited to do our questionnaire in Bahrain only due to the geographical limitation. We will try to expand the scope of the questionnaire to include the concerned countries using emails, internet and online technology. 5. Proposed Solution According to the nature of our paper, and the geographical and time constraints, in order to achieve our goal, we will apply two approaches for gathering and analyzing information. The first one will apply to all our selected countries in which it highly depends on comparing and analyzing each countries economists and decision makers statements to sold facts and numbers, including (GDP growth, Oil GDP growth, PCI inflation) which considered to be the most significant signs of the country economical situation,  Ã‚   from neutral international organizations -including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -. As for the second approach that involves Bahrain only in which we contacted two types of questionnaires and an interview with a decision maker as an add up to the previous approach.   In order to identify whether the financial and economical situation in a country is recovering from the crisis, there are indicators (are known as Economy Indicators) that show whether its improvi ng, stable or turning down. Thus, our questionnaire and interview must be based on it. There are many indicators, but we will consider only on the important ones that are applicable to the business and economy to the countries that we elected. Some of the major indicators (Barnes, 2007, Investopedia ULC) include the following: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI): it shows how healthy the financial situation and determines the expenditures of economy by illustrating the spending power and confidences of consumers. Consumer Credit Report: it indicates the future spending over personal levels and it shows the changing amounts of outstanding loans on individuals. This includes (total debts, current annual rate of growth or decline, and total percentage of credit card delinquencies). It is considered as a major factor that helps to make more than the half of the total GDP. Consumer Price Index (CPI): is seen as a guide for inflation. It focuses on products that consumers buy and use on daily basis. CPI reflects the prices of goods in the markets, and its an important indicator in terms of moving the market and setting the monetary policy. Durable Goods: this involves high priced goods that last for three years, such as machinery, technology manufacturing, cars and other vehicles which indicates general economic expansions.   Employee Cost Index (ECI): it indicates the percentage of changes in employees salaries, bounces, and benefits in terms of wages per hours. It calculates the total cost of employees for a business. Employment Situation:   this indicates employment and unemployment rate. Its useful to understand the state of labor force.   This indicator could move the market dramatically. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): its an aggregate measure of the total economic production for a country. It is one of the most important indicators that illustrates the health of economy and, depending on it, prices of good and services are set in a certain country. It involve s personal consumption, investments, government expenditures, and the exports in a particular country. Existing Home Sales and Housing Starts: are two indicators that come in conjunctions, and this, illustrates the housing market in general. Those are long term indictors that show how many houses are sold. It deals with construction level, which means it shows also supply needed for it, and it shows the demand of consumers and comes in pretty handy in real estate markets. Money Supply: it is the amount of money floating around the economy and it is available for spending. It is controlled by the Central Bank of the country. Money Supply is based on how liquid the money is, which can directly affect economic growth and inflation. Mutual Funds Flows: this is an important concept in which to understand stocks and bond marketing. Non-Manufacturing activities: they involve service industries, such as telecommunications, in which they provide insight into the business area that may not be covered by other indicators. Product Price Index (PPI): its an index to the prices measured by the wholesalers, producers, and retailers that are considered the most powerful contributors to the consumer markets. The index comes in three levels: PPI Commodity Index that involves certain commodities such as crude oil; PPI stage of processing (SOP) Index where products are in an intermediate stage; and PPI Industry Index that involves the final stage and finished manufacturing of the products. And finally, theres the Trade Balance Report: it indicates the health of the economy of a country and its relationships with the rest of the world (Barnes, 2007). Our goal is to get a clear full view of the economy in a country. So, we designed two types of questionnaires, one for aimed for decision makers (type 1) and the other is aimed for the public (type 2), in which both questionnaires are based on economic indicators that we mentioned earlier. For both questionnaires, the methodology is CATI -Computer Aided Telephone Interview-, online form, paper forms, the framework timing is 2 21 December 2009, regarding samples, our goal is at least 69 for each type, our sampling method is quota, and our geographical coverage: Kingdom of Bahrain. In Type 1 questionnaire, we